Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Analogical Arguments

An analogical argument is the use of a comparison between two or more things which have some similarity and from this basis inferring that they share some other property. The central topic which we want to draw a conclusion about is often referred to as the primary subject and the thing(s) to which the primary subject is compared to is called the analogue. The things the analogues and primary subject have in common are referred to as shared attributes. The attribute which the analogues possess that is being inferred to the primary subject are called the target attribute.

As described by Govier "An argument based on analogy begins by using one case (usually agreed on and relatively easy to understand) to illuminate or clarify another (usually less clear). It then seeks to justify a conclusion about the second case on the basis of considerations about the first. The grounds for drawing the conclusion are the relevant similarities between the cases, which show a commonality of structure."

The general form of an analogical argument is:

P1. A has properties p, q, r
P2. B has properties p, q, r
P3. A has property s
C. Therefore B probably has property s


Analogue = A
Primary Subject = B
Shared Attributes = p, q, r
Target Attribute = s

For example:

P1. John's brother and parents smoked two packs of cigarettes a day and ate fatty foods.
P2. John smoked two packs of cigarettes a day and ate fatty foods.
P3. John's brother and parents all died prematurely of heart attacks.
C. Therefore, John will probably die prematurely of a heart attack.

Here is another example in non-standard language:

Tom goes to Las Vegas for his first time. He goes into huge casino with lots of slot machines, gambling tables, bars and an all you can eat buffet. He goes into a second huge casino that also has lots of slot machines, gambling tables and bars. He becomes hungry and remembers the first casino had an all you can eat buffet and concludes that this casino probably as one as well.

Evaluating Analogical Arguments
The strength or weakness of an analogical argument depends upon a number of considerations:

Similarity - Verify that the properties proposed as being shared among the comparison group (shared attributes) do indeed exist. As analogical arguments are rarely actually presented in the form above, it may even be necessary to first list just how it is assumed the comparison groups are similar. Here is a simple example. "John is like Mike. Mike is smart. Therefore John must be smart". In this example none of the assumed similarities between John and Mike have been presented. Before the argument can carry any weight these similarities must be listed and verified.

Relevance - The more relevant the shared attributes are to the target attribute, the stronger the argument. Here is an example of an analogical argument which lacks relevance. "Book A and Book B both have a hardbound cover, pages, words on the pages and numbers at the bottom of the pages. Book A is a boring story. Therefore we can assume that Book B has a boring story." Though I have given a number of similar properties between Book A and Book B, none of these properties are relevant and thus do nothing to increase the probability that Book B is boring.

Number - The more shared attributes the primary subject and analogues share in common with each other, the stronger the argument. This is based on the notion that the more two things are alike, the more likely they also share the property stated in the conclusion. As stated above, relevance plays a key role in determining how much weight these similarities are given.

Disanalogy - Relevant disanalogies or dissimilarities must also be considered when determining the strength or weakness of an analogy. For example if I say, "I have known three people who have had surgery at this hospital with the same surgeon and they have all turned out successfully. Therefore Jane's surgery will also be a success." But what if the three success stories all had minor surgery and Jane is scheduled for a high risk procedure? This of course would be a very relevant disanalogy.

Critical Thinking Web: Analogical Arguments

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